I had a talk with Ray Valdes about my skepticism around the twitter business model. Don't get me wrong, I think Twitter has huge value. I just question the grandiose valuation of 15 Billion dollars. Why? Well for one, I don't see a legitimate way to advertise directly to users without pushing them away. The indirect approach isn't yet earning them dollars. And while there is a lot of potential up-sell opportunities, one would think, they would be in motion by now. There is a lot of money to be made by doing analytics over the data and selling it as research, but Twitter's openness makes me believe that anyone can do this. Perhaps I haven't read all the fine print.
Regardless, even if I haven't bought into the price tag yet, I still question it's value to me. As someone who was involved in the social internet from day one, I have been a very tentative user of the system. I registered with them early in the first year of their existence. But I never really enjoyed the short blast to the ether. And since then, even with all of the research I have been doing, I never find myself using it as a source. Simply put, I have always found the @ and # to simply be too much noise. Sifting through basketball, football, and what I ate for lunch info from people I'm not close too, doesn't add any value to my life. I much prefer the tidbits from my social network, once MySpace, now Facebook. And when I look at some of the folks like Scoble who seems to tweet more than write anymore. I must say, I still prefer his more well thought out rants to his tweets.
Sure if I was at a conference and wanted to know what I was missing in other sessions, I may just plug in. But other than that....
Hmm, but maybe I have been using the tool incorrectly. Maybe I am simply following too few people and not a broad enough sample or perhaps focused sample. Really, what I need is to get a broader perspective and do some analysis on what the conversation of the day is.
Why would I care about this? I have always seen the value of getting the news before the news hits the wire, and if I were responsible for PR at any company, I would be all over Twitter. But outside of work, in my day to day life, why would knowing the news a day before it is published be valuable? Day Trading!
So my experiment begins. Can knowing the temperature of the tweetosphere lead me to know what the news will be about a day later and thus know how a stock will move?
Okay, so a couple of years ago I bought a Mac and felt some level of remorse. Yes, remorse. While there were moments of being overjoyed e.g. seeing my photographs with more vivid colors, iMovie editing, iChat, and a unix based OS. For the most part, I felt less productive. And my #1 frustration was lack of synchronization with my SmartPhone.
Why? Well, the reality was that some of my applications just weren't either a) as good or b) available. So I went back to the PC for a year.
Recently I decided it was time to upgrade my PC. I was very frustrated one day when I was trying to leave the house but Internet Explorer took an hour to upgrade only to find it wasn't as good as Chrome and ultimately looked like a rip off of FireFox. This drove me to go buy a new Powerbook for my personal computer.
With my new PowerBook, I can honestly say, I don't feel any remorse... YET. In fact, my only remorse was that I did not buy a larger hard drive because I am installing so much goodness.
Here are some of the awesome tools I have found:
Think or Swim (Up to you how much money you make or lose ;) My day trading app is on the Mac, I thought for sure I would have to keep my PC for this one.
Dupin ($15) - Yes, finally something to get rid of my duplicate songs in iTunes
TinkerTools (free)- Opens up the hidden controls on the Mac
Chmox (free) - Helps me read online books with .chm extensions
Little Snitch ($29.95 - works for 3 hours in demo mode) - to tell me what my network is up to and block communication I don't want. This has been awesome when you are on sites that have a lot of callbacks to advertising firms etc. Also this a great tool to identify a potential worm or virus.
Site Sucker (Donation) - To help me in my consultancy work. I can easily archive a client's old web-site for later reference. Also it is great when I am trying to learn. I can easily look at someone's web code
"He who becomes the slave of habit, who follows the same routes every day, who never changes pace, who does not risk and change the color of his clothes, who does not speak and does not experience, dies slowly.
He or she who shuns passion, who prefers black on white, dotting ones "i's" rather than a bundle of emotions, the kind that make your eyes glimmer, that turn a yawn into a smile, that make the heart pound in the face of mistakes and feelings, dies slowly.
He or she who does not turn things topsy-turvy, who is unhappy at work, who does not risk certainty for uncertainty, to thus follow a dream, those who do not forego sound advice at least once in their lives, die slowly.
He who does not travel, who does not read, who does not listen to music, who does not find grace in himself, she who does not find grace in herself, dies slowly.
He who slowly destroys his own self-esteem, who does not allow himself to be helped, who spends days on end complaining about his own bad luck, about the rain that never stops, dies slowly.
He or she who abandon a project before starting it, who fail to ask questions on subjects he doesn't know, he or she who don't reply when they are asked something they do know, die slowly.
Let's try and avoid death in small doses, reminding oneself that being alive requires an effort far greater than the simple fact of breathing. Only a burning patience will lead to the attainment of a splendid happiness."
The WSJ just released an article foretelling that small to mid size banks will be losing ~100 Billion in capital this year due to commercial real-estate investments. Joe Weisenthal of Yahoo's TechInsider goes on to say, it isn't just the big banks that make bad investments.
Wow! I think Joe has forgotten trickle down economics. When big banks royally mess up and send the economy into a whirlwind downfall shouldn't it be assumed that eventually the smaller banks will be impacted? It doesn't mean the small banks make bad investments, it means that everyone is affected.
This too big to fail philosophy has some holes. The impact on the smaller banks is a glaring one. We should be letting companies fail that deserve to fail and saving companies that have good business practices that will be adversely affected by the Mortgage crisis. Investing in commercial real-estate was only a bad investment because of the economic down-turn. But giving loans for commercial real-estate is critical and necessary for a functioning economy. The smaller banks shouldn't be penalized for keeping the economy going. Commercial real-estate will not be in a good place until consumer spending rebounds. Consumer spending is being impacted because of job losses and downturns of stock portfolios. It is all a vicious cycle. But right now, the big question is, where will economic stimulation have its biggest impact?
This is a time for disruption. We can't assume that everything will or even should go back to the way it was. There were things that were broken e.g. population decreasing, housing development increasing, housing prices overly inflated, commercial real-estate also inflated, loans overly accessible by people and businesses that do not have collateral or sufficient income. Oh and don't forget, our overall environmental impact and oil crisis. We needed something to shake things out. I just hope that we take this opportunity to build the economy of the future instead of trying to keep the status quo. Take the stimulus money and make it an opportunity for innovation and new leadership. I don't have any faith in the incumbents in the big banks. Nor do I have any faith in the incumbents in the US auto-manufacturing. Let's push for the new economy. Sustainability, fiscal responsibility and potentially even more small business.
Sadly, indicators tell me that the economy hasn't hit its low yet. Take a look at what Howard Davidowitz has to say. Unemployment is high and shows no true signs of decreasing, consumer spending has not mended, foreclosures are continuing, credit is unaccessible to the individual etc., the commercial real-estate is on the verge of depression, the dollar is finally getting hit by Brazilian and Chinese trade and we are likely to start seeing some major inflation. But I am positive that the economy will turn around; however, I expect another major dip before that happens.
What will the signs be of an economy on the mend?
Stop bailouts for companies that are failing
Start paying off our debt, not just the interest for our debt
Implement proper banking regulations and criminalize the behavior that made us get into this mess in the first place
Decrease unemployment
Increased consumer spending
Foreigners renew faith in US government (Obama has been helping here) and the dollar (Stimulus packages doing major damage here)
I'm nervous to the point of panic, the kind of panic that makes your mouth dry. I realize as I am filming Bruno descend over the crest of the waterfall that there is no way for me to portage. I am running that 25 foot waterfall in my kayak whether I like it or not. I snuggle myself into my boat and Muse starts playing in my ear, a high beat music that is as intense as I feel right now. But suddenly... there is silence.
Warner's Music Group's (WMG) has turned off the sound!
Warning!!! If you are hosting home videos on the internet that you overlaid copyrighted music to, realize that your videos may already have been deleted or had all of the sound removed.
Since when is using music on a home made, personal use video a target for copyright infringement?
I'm recently home from a 1/2 year of travels in South America. I was contemplating music compliments for movies I will make to highlight my trips kayaking in Ecuador, packing in Patagonia, tango dancing in Buenos Aires, horseback riding across the Andes, and motorcycle riding to Machu Pichu when I found that none of my older hosted videos were working anymore.
Why would they remove all of the sound from my insignificant videos you ask?
Well, I am infringing on one of the oldest laws of capitalism, Copyright! And, YouTube was just one of the many companies out there willing to help me do it publicly. Sorry YouTube, but you were in breach of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) when you helped my publish my video to my blog which states that it is illegal to aid in copyright infringement. The laws put in place are a result of World Trade Organization treaties and are seriously helping WMG in negotiations with YouTube.
My initial reaction was to yell, "WHY!?!?" when I feel am doing free advertising for them.
But I guess, they can't afford to see it my way. Highlighting new artists in my videos doesn't outweigh the potential piracy threats out there. I sit here and stir in my personal frustration while I listen to Clap Your Hands Say Yeah on a Sideload playlist, another company targeted being sued by Britian's largest Music house, EMI. Sideload has a pretty cool new technology concept where you could upload your MP3s into a secure locker for access by all of your devices. The music companies have been levering DMCA to seriously threaten many new technology startups. The latest is against any passive MP3 search engines e.g. Seeqpod, Sideload, Songza, Skreemr, Google, and YouTube.
Since ~2003, EMI and WMG have been seen as victims losing their shorts in the 21st century where technology and piracy have reigned; however, recently, the losses impacting the big music players because of the likes of Napster and its descendants are no longing having the same effect. The law has leaned in their favor time and time again. EMI just announced triple gains in operating revenue last year due to both cost savings and digital content sales. Sidenote: Potentially a good stock market buy if you assume these lawsuits will continue to limit piracy.
We all understand why the likes of Bittorent are bad for the Music and Entertainment industry. When you can download an entire album in minutes and a movie in thirty, you know something is awry.
In all honesty, I believe in being paid for your work. I believe that one should pay for IP as long as it has value. Regardless, I hope that YouTube and others figure out how to play nice with the vendors and enable us to get to some middle ground so that the home "Wanna Be" movie directors can cross that fine line of copyright infringement, use our paid for music, and still make kick ass home videos without upsetting anyone.
In the meantime, the individual is SOL and any tech company that wants to make it in the music domain had better start out as good citizens and not enable bad behavior or they better be ready with strong legal defense.
I think there is a lot to be said for the technology leadership that all of these companies have brought to the table. I know that my music knowledge has increased as a result of the infrastructure they have put in motion. Perhaps now, all of my future music knowledge will be subject to advertising. The key to a good mucic tech biz is empowering the online listener is to broaden their musical taste and library while hiding the cost of the content. The current list of contenders playing with the music companies and leveraging advertising and other mechanisms to pay for the copyrighted content are Last.FM, Pandora, MySpace, Rhapsody, Napster, Imeem and Yahoo Music.
Wow, it is not every day that you get walking pneumonia, nor is it every day that you get to run the Thompson. I had been feeling bad like I was fighting a cold off as I sat across from Joyce listening to her tall tales of 20 foot waves on the Thompson.
"OMG!!!! It is the best river ever. My favorite. It is not a matter of IF you will flip, just when. And it may take you four or more attempts to roll, but swimming is not an option on that river. It is H U G E. When you roll... no worries, just sit there and feel the boat hit the crest of the wave, then hip snap. It will take you awhile to get it, but keep trying. AND Do not eddy out, the whirlpools will eat you. It is a formidable river, but you'll be fine." - Joyce Stuart, kayakista extraordinaire.
So I call Shanna... "What Ugh?@. you have never done this river before? Why? I am sh$#in my pants. Joyce is talking about 20 foot waves with laterals slappin you silly. Idamay can't even claim she has run it because she swam all the big rapids out of the shoot. She flipped at Frog, the very first rapid! And I am getting sick. Man, I want to be top of my game for this thing. Should we go? Are we ready for this? Seriously"
Needless to say, I did nothing to calm Shanna's nerves. Now both of us were freaking out.
Next thing I know, I am packed and crossing the border listening to Dale's story of shipping an entire semi and it's contents bolt by bolt to his work in the MidWest after trying to cross from Canada back into the US years ago. They were detained for seven days because someone forgot a piece of paper. They had to fly home after the detainment. Meanwhile parts from the semi and cargo were being rejected by shop staff because they were being sent by the customs house COD and they did not realize it what it was.
Six hours later, my cold is already rearing its nasty head and I am worrying that I won't be able to run the river the next day.
We slept in a little town called Hope that looked like it hadn't progressed in fifty years. Sweet people, cheap eats and a freezing cold motel room that later turned into a sauna. The drive to the river from Hope is amazing and I would recommend driving it in the light to experience it.
The morning greeted me with a full blown cold. The day before I was hoping that the cold was just an excuse so I wouldn't have to face my fear about this river. It could have been my out. But when faced with reality, I pouted and went to try and sleep it off instead of risking getting sicker.
Shanna, Dale, and Don ran the river that day. They were invited by the Ontario Kayak Club to a Canadian Thanksgiving. But they declined and came back and ate Tomato soup and toasted cheese sandwiches with me.
Shanna came back to the cabin with a big, wild eyes. "Oh no becky, Who cares about Frog, who cares about the cutting board, it was that other rapid after the Frog that was crazy. No one even knows it's name. That wave picked me up and threw me."
At that point, I could tell that Shanna was secretly hoping I was not going to feel good the next day so that she didn't have to run it again. But, I shattered that hope and rallied the next day. I felt horrible, but I went anyhow. I just promised myself that I would not try to surf the Frog so that I would keep all of my energy to run the river. As soon as you know you are going on a river like this, fear sets in. It becomes your job to control it, keep it hidden, and stay focused on what you know how to do.
Needless to say, my cold later turned into walking pneumonia. But it was worth it. I learned two lessons... 1) Stay out of the water when you are sick 2) Bring potentially two boats to the Thompson next time. The play boat for the Frog and a river runner for everything else. 14,000 cfs of water on a little Jackson Kayak is a lot of fun, but holy cow, it throws you around, it stops you when you are full speed, and good luck catching waves baby, ain't gonna happen. I was missing my Dagger Animas from the Hells Canyon. That thing sliced through waves and I could catch the green waves.
One time I was following Don on a rapid and were cruising pretty fast towards the end of a big wave train, the next thing I know, it was like he hit the e-brake or something and did a complete 180 and was moving up river... not on purpose mind you. He was not trying to Eddy out. I flew past him laughing, like oh wow.
Granite on the Hells Canyon @24000 cfs was still the biggest wave I have ever been on. It felt like 25 feet, something that could throw my 12 foot boat on end without a problem. But the waves on Thompson were big and they didn't stop. They were huge. And, it is my understanding that the water level was quite low for this river.
Check out the video I made. The boyz are surfing the frog, appropriately named for how it throws the boat up and down in a frog like movement.
This rapid is one of the easiest rapids on the river. The line is generally on the right and it has some pretty big waves down that entire line.
I am eager to go back and surf the Frog. Next time, I want to make sure that I have a few hours just for that.
Note: I have a typo in Dale's last name, it is Bonson.
While I primarily use my iPhone to manage my life... my contacts, my email, my videos, my pictures, where to go, how to get there, what rivers to run and stay away from, etc; I see it as a full blown computer and why not leverage it for education at such a low price point? 8-16GB of storage and it's processing power and applications are more than enough.
The keyboard ain't that great, but the screen sure is better than the XO. And the iPhone has all the applications on it to manage one's life. Sure you require a cellular subscription in order to use it as an actual phone and to make the majority of the apps come alive. But why not make the phone wireless and get WiMax in place in rural or impoverished areas? Then you would have universal information access without the subscription fees. And regardless, how many kids do you know that don't have a cell phone and an iPod regardless of their current economic status in the US?
Also, rugged... yeah it can be. I have dropped my iPhone far too many times and it is still working. It has no hard drive so it is less fragile than the average computer. And well, the hard plastic cases are pretty cheap.
But does the iPhone have the Logo programming language I ask myself? I am sure if you wanted it to be there, it would be easy enough for a Lisp nerd to get it up and running. And, heck, you already have ruby or python on the iPhone. Just install the terminal app. Ruby and Python are real languages with actual purpose and while logo just makes me feel nostalgic. But logo definitely has it merits when teaching programming to a child. I just wonder how many students today actually use it. And if they do, when does the light bulb goes off to encourage a child to evolve from logo into a real programming language.
The iPhone aside, while many doubt the intentions of the OLPC, I do see a lot of Pros and Cons for OLPC as it is today: Pros
Lowers the barrier to entry to having a computer as a child
Introduces all children (potentially impoverished) to Computers
Teachers need a menu of tools to pull from to train students with, OLPC can be seen as a powerful tool provided they have the skills to leverage it
Cons
Not all teachers have had sufficient professional development to introduce a device like this into the class
Now teachers have to manage, chat, internet access, iPods and cell phones in the classroom.
The Teacher should still be the boss. The students should be learning structure in much the same way that there will be when they have a career. If the computer has all of the attention, the teacher will have less relevance. This will translate into other social challenges over time.
Who is going to maintain the equipment?
I loved the story from Ray Fisman's article, the $100 distraction. He highlights without proper guidance and educator influence from a child's guardians, the likelihood of the OLPC being of any value in that child's education is quite low.
It just seems, if the students are already going to already have an phone, an MP3 player, and well now a computer. Why not consolidate into one device?
SynapticMash begins to turn up the volume on our product offerings. In preparation for my talk at the Linked Data Planet on the 16th in NY City, Jennifer Zaino did a great job of summarizing our conversation about some of the key technology challenges in schools and how SynapticMash is here to save the day. At the Linked Data planet I will go into more details on how Web 2.0 can be leveraged to solve big challenges in education.
Linked Data Planet June 17-18, NY City Wed Jun 18, 2008 -- 3:00pm - 3:50pm Track: Terrace Ballroom W11: The Social Internet, Promise or Plague in Education?
I really must update my abstract... but this is the current draft.
The Social Internet has spawned numerous networks silos with data that is isolated from traditional search mechanisms. How will all of this new data being generated in these silos be accessed? When, if ever, is it appropriate to connect with the data and profiles in these silos? Education is a great arena to explore when thinking about bridging privacy needs with the benefits of data connectivity and collaboration provided by social networking. Can social networking keep students profiles protected, enhance student performance and facilitate professional development with social networking? This talk will cover the benefits of and technology best practices for collaborative educational environments and data connectivity in education.
SPEAKER: Rebecca Dias, VP of Software Development, SynapticMash
Are you a CSS guru? How are your Javascript and Ajax skills? Can you code reusable components? Do you know enough ruby to be dangerous? How about Information Architecture Skills and the ability to work with designers? Are you an open source fiend?
We need you if you fit the bill. ruby - jobs @ synapticmash .com
This guys was soooo smooth on the river. He didn't actually need a paddle. He rigged up a cool little pully system for us so that we could keep getting on the wave. Great core strength exercise... let me tell you.
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